Belarus Stands to Gain from Dispute with Russia

First, this is the first genuine case of Russia yielding gas deliveries as a policy tool in relations with neighbouring states. The earlier cases were directly linked to the signing of new contracts and price bargaining, whereas the current sending of the gas debt bill is hardly disguised by the Kremlin itself as a way of making Belarus toe the line on the tripartite Customs Union with Kazakhstan. The Belarusian government argues that the current Customs Union charter favour Russian producers and seeks equal rights for the Belarusian companies, thus halting the kick-off of Moscow’s most ambitious economic project to date.

Second, Belarus is taking a new stance. Instead of being a victim of Russia’s energy cut, the government has stood up to the Kremlin’s act and produced their own bill to Russia, for gas transit to Europe, and also stood by it, cutting deliveries to Europe. Such a challenge of Moscow on equal terms may bounce back for Belarus in unsubsidised energy prices. Yet, the military and other assets of Belarus that are of interest to Russia will continue giving Minsk a fair bargaining position vis-à-vis Moscow.

As regards relations with the EU, Belarus is taking a big gamble. Whilst being the very country to cut gas deliveries, they try to pass the blame on Moscow and offer cooperation in other areas as a symbol of departing from Russia’s orbit. The EU, however, prefers to stay out of the debate to the largest possible degree.

Finally, Belarusian president Lukashenka is handling the crisis in a way that should help his re-election in February 2011. The conflict context is perfect for him to revoke his image of the saviour and defender of the Belarusian nation, which he .does with regard to securing the rights of the producers within the Customs Union and demanding transit payments for gas.

The whole conflict puts Belarus again on the news map which is ultimately useful for the country.

Is Medvedev Mr Russia?

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev is travelling to Switzerland and the US this week to take part in G20 meeting and also continue talks with President Barak Obama.

As Dmitry Medvedev travels to Switzerland this week and later to the US to face president Obama and mingle with other G20 leaders, the overwhelming question will remain: Is this the man to talk to on Russia? After all, many in the West strongly believe Russia is still run by Vladimir Putin, who also recently blatantly said the country’s leadership since 2012 will be decided in a “chat” between himself and Medvedev, the president echoing that they are “of the same blood”.

Over the 15 months of his presidency in Russia, Medvedev has achieved more than anyone expected: he is re-ploughing the legislative field, to create foundations of a legal state in Russia, and uproot corruption. He has started improving the state bureaucracy, and has held a helping hand to small businesses and civil society in Russia. Some diplomatic successes, including the rapproachment with the US, are also said to be under his personal belt. Last week, Medvedev published a clever, insightful, comprehensible and inspiring programme “Russia, forward”, outlining the major priorities for the country’s development to do away with Russia’s inherent sluggishness and achieve a technological break-through while also fostering individuals’ sense of self-worth. Such a combination is unprecedented in Russia, the two previous economic modernisations (under Stalin and Tsar Peter I) were achieved at a massive social cost.

Despite all that work, and also efforts to reach out to the Russian public via a personal video blog and regular TV interviews, there is something seriously missing about Medvedev that so far keeps him in the shadow of Putin. He might be the right and likeable guy for an ordinary Russian, but he does not appear to be capable enough as a national leader. Medvedev’s achievements are not celebrated, they are almost clandestine, not to undermine Putin. He is less known as an individual than Putin. Most importantly, he lacks a supporting structure: the main problem with his call to Russians to join him in taking “Russia forward” is that it has zero suggestions as to how those who share his views can contribute.

Medvedev does some profound work and takes little credit for it. He might rather do, but Putin’s people are omnipresent even in his own administration, and he personally is no fan of radical moves. No need for a revolution, though. What Medvedev has to do is not to copy Putin’s brusque style, but rise to show he is a different, but equally strong, personality. This will help him get a following and resources eventually needed to realise his liberal vision for Russia. As he goes on the foreign tour, he will be sharing this vision with foreign leaders and the public. The more they treat him as Mr Russia, the more chances are he will succeed in realising it.

Is Medvedev Mr Russia?

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev is travelling to Switzerland and the US this week to take part in G20 meeting and also continue talks with President Barak Obama.

As Dmitry Medvedev travels to Switzerland this week and later to the US to face president Obama and mingle with other G20 leaders, the overwhelming question will remain: Is this the man to talk to on Russia? After all, many in the West strongly believe Russia is still run by Vladimir Putin, who also recently blatantly said the country’s leadership since 2012 will be decided in a “chat” between himself and Medvedev, the president echoing that they are “of the same blood”. Read more