Second, Belarus is taking a new stance. Instead of being a victim of Russia’s energy cut, the government has stood up to the Kremlin’s act and produced their own bill to Russia, for gas transit to Europe, and also stood by it, cutting deliveries to Europe. Such a challenge of Moscow on equal terms may bounce back for Belarus in unsubsidised energy prices. Yet, the military and other assets of Belarus that are of interest to Russia will continue giving Minsk a fair bargaining position vis-à-vis Moscow.

As regards relations with the EU, Belarus is taking a big gamble. Whilst being the very country to cut gas deliveries, they try to pass the blame on Moscow and offer cooperation in other areas as a symbol of departing from Russia’s orbit. The EU, however, prefers to stay out of the debate to the largest possible degree.

Finally, Belarusian president Lukashenka is handling the crisis in a way that should help his re-election in February 2011. The conflict context is perfect for him to revoke his image of the saviour and defender of the Belarusian nation, which he .does with regard to securing the rights of the producers within the Customs Union and demanding transit payments for gas.

The whole conflict puts Belarus again on the news map which is ultimately useful for the country.

Belarus refines Russian oil at two large facilities, but exports the bulk of the produce, also charging a hefty petrochemicals export fee – which the Russian side believe is theirs. The first attempt to make Belarus itself pay Russia export, rather than domestic, was taken in January 2007, resulting in a brief halt to Russian oil supplies to Europe and a half-way tariff solution. Belarus paid US$53 per ton as export duty instead of the initial US$180, and kept 15% of the collected export duty, while Russia retained 85%. The agreement expired at the start of this year.

Now Russia is on the assault again, although this time round it has its hands tied up by its own invention, the tripartite Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, which, as Belarusian government reasonably points out, precludes any tariff duplicity. The Belarusian side, however, is also vulnerable. According to estimations by economist Yaroslav Romantchuk, should the Russian conditions be observed, Belarus would need to pay some US$5.6 billion in 2010 in oil export duties alone, which equals over 10% of its GDP and nearly equals profits from exporting refined oil, estimated over US$6 billion. The tariff is thus effectively untenable for the Belarusian economy.

Given the high stakes for both sides, negotiations over the new oil contract may prove more difficult than either side would warrant – and take longer than the now habitual seasonal energy haggles. This is because the root cause – Russia’s subsidised energy prices remains intact in principle. To resolve this most recent impasse, Russia may be hoping to obtain control over Belarusian oil refining assets, in exchange for some lower tariffs, something that the Belarusian side will be very reluctant to part with. In any case, Belarus is likely to see conditions to worsen for the oil refining industry, which is likely to lower its share in the GPD and export in the long term. For Russia, the question is how much and who exactly will gain from the new contract: the Russian budget from the higher energy tariffs, or oil companies from being able to buy Belarusian assets on cheap. The recipients of Russian oil via Belarus in Poland and Germany can remain on quiet alert, for the attempts to cover up the dispute from both sides show that they are eager to contain the situation to themselves at least at present.

Now Russia is on the assault again, although this time round it has its hands tied up by its own invention, the tripartite Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, which, as Belarusian government reasonably points out, precludes any tariff duplicity. The Belarusian side, however, is also vulnerable. According to estimations by economist Yaroslav Romantchuk, should the Russian conditions be observed, Belarus would need to pay some US$5.6 billion in 2010 in oil export duties alone, which equals over 10% of its GDP and nearly equals profits from exporting refined oil, estimated over US$6 billion. The tariff is thus effectively untenable for the Belarusian economy.

Given the high stakes for both sides, negotiations over the new oil contract may prove more difficult than either side would warrant – and take longer than the now habitual seasonal energy haggles. This is because the root cause – Russia’s subsidised energy prices remains intact in principle. To resolve this most recent impasse, Russia may be hoping to obtain control over Belarusian oil refining assets, in exchange for some lower tariffs, something that the Belarusian side will be very reluctant to part with. In any case, Belarus is likely to see conditions to worsen for the oil refining industry, which is likely to lower its share in the GPD and export in the long term. For Russia, the question is how much and who exactly will gain from the new contract: the Russian budget from the higher energy tariffs, or oil companies from being able to buy Belarusian assets on cheap. The recipients of Russian oil via Belarus in Poland and Germany can remain on quiet alert, for the attempts to cover up the dispute from both sides show that they are eager to contain the situation to themselves at least at present.

Место проведения – университет LSE.  Университет успешно конкурирует с Оксфордом и Кембриджем по качеству обучения и имеет широкую мировую известность. Среди его выпускников и преподавателей 14 Нобелевских лауреатов и 32 главы государств, а также большое число государственных деятелей по всему миру. Выпускники LSE также занимают высокие управленческие посты в частных корпорациях мирового масштаба. Таким образом, LSE является одним из ключевых центров подготовки мировых элит и представляет уникальную возможность повлиять на них в период формирования.

В России растет понимание важности общения с мировым студенческим сообществом через LSE. В 2009 г. в университете выступил Президент РФ Д. Медведев,  а в рамках «Недели российского бизнеса» – президент РЖД В.Якунин, глава группы компаний «Тройка-диалог» Р. Варданян и многие другие.
«День России» проводится в LSE впервые и является частью «Недели российского бизнеса»

Программа мероприятия
Главный лекционный театр университета и улица Хаттон стрит
•    Показ видеофильма с ключевыми фактами о России
•    Презентация книги преподавателя LSE  о роли России в современном мире
•    Дебаты «Россия: партнер или опасность?»

В дебатах участвуют две команды, в состав каждой входят студенты LSE (возможно и других университетов), студенты из России, преподаватель LSE  и представитель дипкорпуса МИД Великобритании и России, ответственный за двустороннюю проблематику.
Цель дебатов – информировать британскую аудиторию о российской позиции по важным вопросам отношений с Европой, а также установление взаимопонимания между российским и британским обществами.

Темы обсуждения:
- сотрудничество России и ЕС в сфере энергетики («Так ли опасны для Европы российские газовые «Потоки», как представляют СМИ?)
- инициатива России по новому рамочному документу о европейской безопасности («Мирная Россия»).

Дискуссию ведет известный журналист. Команды представляют свои аргументы, дебатируют и отвечают на вопросы аудитории.  Дискуссия транслируется через видеосвязь на основную артерию кампуса LSE – улицу Хаттон стрит, где идет стабильно широкий поток студентов. Возле экрана трансляции проходит дегустация блюд русской кухни. Студенты подходят, смотрят дискуссию, их комментарии записываются на видеокамеру. Из них позже готовится ролик и размещается на сайтах YouTube и Facebook.

Аудитория в лекционном театре и на улице оставляет свои голоса в поддержку одной из команд на специальных досках. После подсчета голосов победители получают призы.

•    Показ работ молодого дизайнера одежды Антонины Шаповаловой, которая позиционирует себя как «Российский дизайнер-патриот» и официально получает поддержку управления по идеологии администрации президента РФ.  Модели демонстрируют футболки с жизнеутверждающими и патриотическими надписями на подиуме вдоль Хаттон стрит, вовлекают в показ зрителей (достижение высокой степени интеракции – подарки)

•    В партнерстве с Pushkin House в студенческом клубе будет организован показ классических русских мультипликационных фильмов.

Организация мероприятия строится на основе следующих принципов:
1) обращение к личности, а не к социальному или корпоративному статусу человека;
2) работа с имиджем страны на основе истинных интересов и потребностей аудитории;
3) коммуникация через каналы, которым доверяет и которыми пользуется целевая аудитория;
4) использование интерактивных инструментов для создания позитивного опыта от страны.

«День России» будет широко освещаться в британских и российских СМИ (пресса, ТВ, радио, интернет) и глобальных социальных интернет-сетях.

Наталья Лещенко Жизнь либерала

Делу лорда Ральфа Дарендорфа посвящается

3 ноября в Вестминстерском аббатстве отпевали лорда Ральфа Дарендорфа, великого мыслителя, известного политика, крупного чиновника, британского барона. Вернее, служили благодарственную за его жизнь и труды. Служба была лёгкой и светлой, и молились не за упокой души, а за продолжение дела этого человека. За свободу личности, за демократию, за истинную европейскую интеграцию. Подробнее

The visit is best understood if seen not as a purely Russo-British affair, but rather a development in Russia-EU partnership. David Miliband is currently being slated for EU’s foreign policy chief position. His increased rapport with Russia could strengthen  his personal professional credentials, to balance the already effective ties with the U.S. -  to the benefit Europe’s foreign relations. Indeed, the most notable development of the visit so far is Miliband’s cautious support for considering Russia’s initiative of a new security framework for Europe, something that has fallen on deaf ears with Europe so far. The progress on EU-Russia security dialogue is an unexpected – but nonetheless significant outcome of Miliband’s trip to Moscow.

The visit is best understood if seen not as a purely Russo-British affair, but rather a development in Russia-EU partnership. David Miliband is currently being slated for EU’s foreign policy chief position. His increased rapport with Russia could strengthen  his personal professional credentials, to balance the already effective ties with the U.S. -  to the benefit Europe’s foreign relations. Indeed, the most notable development of the visit so far is Miliband’s cautious support for considering Russia’s initiative of a new security framework for Europe, something that has fallen on deaf ears with Europe so far. The progress on EU-Russia security dialogue is an unexpected – but nonetheless significant outcome of Miliband’s trip to Moscow.

Russia celebrates the finding blaming the start of hostilities on Georgia, but will downplay the report’s conclusion that the separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot be recognised based on Kosovo precedent due to the absence of established genocide of their population by Georgian authorities. The Kremlin will not change its position on the status of the republics. Realising that the push for the recognition of the republics will only build up this pressure point in relations with Europe and the U.S., Moscow may prefer to put the issue to the back burner for the time being.

Russia celebrates the finding blaming the start of hostilities on Georgia, but will downplay the report’s conclusion that the separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot be recognised based on Kosovo precedent due to the absence of established genocide of their population by Georgian authorities. The Kremlin will not change its position on the status of the republics. Realising that the push for the recognition of the republics will only build up this pressure point in relations with Europe and the U.S., Moscow may prefer to put the issue to the back burner for the time being.