“No Win” EU report on Georgia-Russia War

The report by an independent commission under the EU aegis published today exonerates Russia of starting the military conflict but supports territorial integrity of Georgia. Establishing the truth is an ungrateful job, especially with regard to an armed conflict. Report’s findings exonerate both conflicting sides in some aspects while also giving each a share of blame. Such a two-way conclusion is plausible and credible, meaning that the report’s findings can form a solid basis for international consensus over the August 2008 conflict and policy decisions with its regard.

Russia celebrates the finding blaming the start of hostilities on Georgia, but will downplay the report’s conclusion that the separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia cannot be recognised based on Kosovo precedent due to the absence of established genocide of their population by Georgian authorities. The Kremlin will not change its position on the status of the republics. Realising that the push for the recognition of the republics will only build up this pressure point in relations with Europe and the U.S., Moscow may prefer to put the issue to the back burner for the time being.